LIFENEWS – In the fight for control of the U.S. Senate, Republicans have been on offense most of the 2024 cycle. The 2024 Senate map heavily favors Republicans.
The current Senate breakdown of 47-Democrats, 4 Independents who caucus with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans means that the GOP needs to net 2 seats in order to secure Senate control regardless of who wins the White House.
However, if Trump wins the presidential race, they need to net just one seat. (In the event of a 50-50 tie vote in the Senate, Vice President J.D. Vance would serve as the tiebreaker.)
Identifying Target States:
Republicans have been eyeing several currently Democratic seats to provide the numbers they need. The 3 most obvious targets are in states that Donald Trump carried in 2016 and 2020: West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.
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West Virginia
With Senator Joe Manchin (D) opting not to run for reelection, the open seat in West Virginia is an all-but-guaranteed GOP pickup at this point. Popular Republican Governor Jim Justice leads Democrat Glenn Elliott, the two-term mayor of Wheeling, by a margin of 62%-28% according to a Research America poll conducted on behalf of West Virginia MetroNews in late August.
Montana
In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy, a Navy SEAL and entrepreneur, has consistently led in public polling against incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D). The Cook Political Report recently updated the race in its rankings, moving it from Tossup to Leans Republican. Sheehy has a clear edge over Tester. A Remington Research poll of likely voters in mid-September found Sheehy leading by 8 points.
Ohio
The Ohio Senate race features a showdown between incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, a pro-abortion Democrat who first won the seat in 2006, and Republican Bernie Moreno, a conservative outsider and businessman. If victorious, Moreno would become the first Hispanic American to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Ohio. An RMG Research poll of likely voters conducted in mid-September found Moreno leading Brown 48%-46%, a statistical lead within the poll’s margin of error. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Brown leading by 2.8%. In other words, the Ohio race is a dead heat. The Cook Political Report labels the race a Tossup.
Republicans also have opportunities to flip seats in Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And possibly, Virginia.
Holding the Line
As we head into the final stretch before Election Day, it is also important to highlight the Republican Senators that are up for reelection this year. If any of these incumbents should fall, Republicans would need to pick up an additional Democratic seat in order to keep the Senate majority within reach. The 3 most vulnerable GOP incumbents in 2024 are Senators Ted Cruz in Texas, Deb Fischer in Nebraska, and Rick Scott in Florida. All 3 races have tightened in recent weeks.
Texas
In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz (R) faces pro-abortion Dallas Congressman Colin Allred (D). In 2018, Cruz narrowly defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke, a former congressman and former presidential candidate. Democrats are hoping Allred can go all the way and unseat Cruz. The latest Emerson College poll of likely voters found Cruz leading by a four-point margin, 49%-45%. That’s just outside the poll’s 3.1% margin of error. The Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate race as Leans Republican.
Senator Cruz has a consistent pro-life voting record and is endorsed by National Right to Life. Conversely, Congressman Allred, who was first elected in 2018, has a 0% pro-life rating from National Right to Life. Allred supports a policy allowing unlimited abortion for any reason until birth, and he has voted to use taxpayer dollars to pay for abortions.
During the current session of Congress, Allred voted against legislation to ensure an infant who is born alive during an attempted abortion is afforded the same degree of medical care as any other newborn of the same gestational age. Not surprisingly, Allred is endorsed by the political arm of Planned Parenthood, the nation’s largest abortion provider and Reproductive Freedom for All (formerly known as NARAL Pro-Choice America).
Get the facts about Collin Allred’s Record on Life
Nebraska
In Nebraska, Republican Senator Deb Fischer is being challenged by pro-abortion union leader Dan Osborn, who has been a registered Independent since 2016. Osborn may label himself an “Independent,” but his stance on abortion closely aligns with the Democratic Party, which advocates a policy allowing unlimited abortion for virtually any reason until birth.
In this race, Democrats acknowledged the political reality that winning statewide in Nebraska with a registered Democrat was a tall order. Instead, they have thrown their weight and invested considerable funds behind Osborn. According to OpenSecrets, the top 5 metro areas from which Osborn has raked in donations include San Francisco, Boston, Los Angeles-Long Beach, and New York. This past weekend, Hollywood actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus held a fundraiser on Osborn’s behalf, specifically citing his abortion stance as a motivating factor for her interest in the race.
According to Politico, “Overall, Osborn is linking arms with Nebraska and national Democrats in the most basic way: A shared goal of ousting a Republican. He said Democrats in his state are ‘being supportive’ and he’s also had some contact with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, though not a formal endorsement.”
Nebraskans should not be misled by Osborn’s “Independent” label. The bottom line is that whether an “I” or a “D” comes after his name, an Osborn victory would come at the expense of incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R), who is endorsed by National Right to Life for her consistently pro-life voting record.
Senator Fischer supports commonsense protections for moms and babies including the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act and the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act. Osborn, on the other hand, has not named a single protective measure that he would vote for in the Senate.
In fact, he has stated that he wants to bring back the overturned Supreme Court rulings that legalized abortion on demand nationwide and limited the ability of the states to enact meaningful protections for unborn babies and their mothers.
Recent polls showing Osborn within striking range of Fischer prompted the Cook Political Report to move the Nebraska race from the Solid Republican column to the Likely Republican column.
Florida
In Florida, Senator Rick Scott (R) faces a challenge from former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). In 2018, Scott won the seat by just 10,033 votes (or 0.12%) after an automatic recount in what turned out to be the closest Senate race in Florida history. Prior to the Senate, Scott served two terms as governor of Florida. Throughout his career in public service, Rick Scott has delivered for moms and babies in Florida.
As governor, Scott increased state funding for pregnancy help centers. He signed legislation to strengthen Florida’s parental notification law, to prevent insurance policies created through the Affordable Care Act from covering elective abortions, and to ensure pregnant women have the opportunity to view an ultrasound prior to abortion.
In the Senate, Scott has stood strong against the radical agenda pushed by pro-abortion Democrats, who, like Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, are pushing a nationwide policy that would allow unlimited abortion for any reason until birth and force taxpayers to fund elective abortions. Senator Scott is endorsed by National Right to Life for reelection.
Get the facts about Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s Record on Life
The Cook Political Report places the Florida Senate race in the Likely Republican category. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by 4.1%. A RMG Research poll of likely voters conducted in late September showed Scott ahead by a 6-point margin, 50%-44%. It is not yet known what impact recent weather emergencies may have on voter turnout and ballot processing in Florida. Currently, hundreds (if not thousands) of Florida residents may be displaced from their homes.
Voting in the 2024 Elections
In addition to the 3 GOP incumbents mentioned, Senators Roger Wicker in Mississippi, Josh Hawley in Missouri, Pete Ricketts in Nebraska (special election to finish Ben Sasse’s term), Kevin Cramer in North Dakota, Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, and John Barrasso in Wyoming are also seeking reelection. Congressman Jim Banks is running for an open seat in Indiana. All of these candidates are endorsed by National Right to Life.
For more information on endorsements, voting-record flyers, candidate comparisons, and other election resources, visit: www.nrlvictoryfund.org.
If you live in any of the states mentioned in this article (and even if you live in other states), please make sure you are registered to vote. It’s not too late to register to vote in many states. Then, make a plan to vote. The lives of vulnerable unborn babies and their mothers depend on us as pro-life voters. If we want to influence public policy in 2025 and beyond, we must make our voices heard in the 2024 elections!
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LifeNews Note: Andrew Bair works in the political affairs department of National Right to Life.
